Koniec strefy euro?

Abstract

In this article the author attempts not only to simply answer the recently more and more current question of whether the euro area will survive, but rather to analyse the events that have led to the current situation and to present possible options to solve problems. First of all, it should be noted that the ongoing crisis is not a monetary crisis – which means that it does not concern the euro as such – but a fiscal crisis, and consequently concerns the systems in the different Member States. The starting point for the analysis is the impact of the global economic crisis originating in the United States on the situation in the European Union, particularly in the euro area, as well as the breakdown of the Eurogroup into the so-called corecountries and the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain). It is worth stressing that the euro has never been a purely economic concept, but largely a political one as well, and therefore the current situation cannot be analysed only through the prism of economic laws. An analysis of the numerous errors made during the implementation of this project in conjunction with the global economic breakdown have led the Union to an extremely complicated situation, from which there is no single right way out. Currently, five scenarios are the most important, but none of them will be probably fulfilled in pure form. The scenarios are: the vision of a very restrictive financial policy, particularly the fiscal policy; restructuring the debt of the PIGS countries, ‘Argentinisation of Europe’; ‘Resurrection of Europe’; the new economic order based on the position of China and India. There is also a sixth scenario, more and more frequently spoken about by economists, namely that the PIGS countries will leave the euro area, but this seems completely impossible due to the political nature of the concept of the euro area.