ISSUE: 2/2026
- Volume 30
- Number 2
- 2026
Subscribe NEWSLETTER
Studia Europejskie –
Studies in European Affairs
ISSN: 1428-149X
e-ISSN: 2719-3780
License
Articles published in the journal are under a Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial – No Derivatives 4.0 International License
Publication co-financed by Ministry of Science and Higher Education pursuant to the Regulation of the Minister of Education and Science of 3 August 2021 (Journal of Laws of 2021, item 1514) on the “Development of Scientific Journals” programme.
Publikacja dofinansowana przez Ministerstwo Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyższego na podstawie rozporządzenia Ministra Edukacji i Nauki z 3 sierpnia 2021 r. (Dz. U. z 2021 r. poz. 1514) w sprawie programu „Rozwój czasopism naukowych”.
Publication co-financed by the University of Warsaw within the “Excellence Initiative – Research University” programme.
Czasopismo otrzymało dofinasowanie w ramach Programu „Inicjatywa Doskonałości – Uczelnia Badawcza”.
Determinants of Euro Adoption in Poland – Relevance and Relationships in Light of the TISM Approach
Abstract
This study synthesises the existing literature on euro adoption to evaluate the relevance of its key determinants, focusing on economic, political, and institutional factors, and to elucidate the interdependencies between them.
The study employs Total Interpretive Structural Modelling (TISM) to identify and analyse the relationships between key determinants of euro adoption. Data were collected through a review of the literature and consultations with experts, followed by the application of TISM to develop a hierarchical model of these factors.
The analysis identified fiscal stability, price levels, interest rates, and GDP convergence as the most significant factors influencing euro adoption. It also revealed that factors such as labour market reforms, competitiveness, and Eurozone reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal integration and capital market union exert indirect but substantial influences on the process.
The findings highlight the complex interdependencies between various determinants of euro adoption. The study suggests that a successful adoption of the single currency requires the simultaneous adoption of comprehensive reforms across multiple areas. It emphasises the need for Poland specifically to achieve both real economic convergence and institutional readiness before adopting the euro. The research provides a framework through which policymakers can better understand the multifaceted nature of euro adoption and prioritise actions that enhance Poland’s preparedness for Eurozone membership.
References
Aizenman, J. (2013) “The eurozone crisis: muddling through on the way to a more perfect euro union?”, Social Sciences. Vol. 2(4), pp. 221–233. DOI: 10.3390/socsci2040221.
Alesina, A., Barro, R.J. and Tenreyro, S. (2002) “Optimal currency areas”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Vol. 17, pp. 301–345. DOI: 10.1086/ ma.17.3585292.
Czech National Bank (2024) Alignment Analyses and Assessment. Available at: https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary-policy/euro-adoption/ (Access 6.05.2026).
Arató, K., Koller, B. and Pelle, A. (eds.) (2021) The political economy of the eurozone in Central and Eastern Europe: why in, why out? Routledge. DOI: 10.4324/9780429261411.
Arvai, K. (2024) “The political economy of currency unions”, Journal of International Economics. Vol. 152, No. 103991. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103991.
Beetsma, R.M. and Larch, M. (2019) “EU fiscal rules: Further reform or better implementation?”, Amsterdam Centre for European Studies Research Paper. Vol. 2. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3406750.
Błaszkiewicz, D. (2024) Gigantyczny zwrot Polaków przeciwko euro. Przo- dujemy w UE. Obserwator Gospodarczy. Available at: https://obserwa- torgospodarczy.pl/2024/06/29/gigantyczny-zwrot-polakow-przeciwko- euro-przodujemy-w-ue/#goog_rewarded (Access 6.05.2026).
Brzoza-Brzezina, M., Makarski, K. and Wesołowski, G. (2014) “Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?”, Economic Modelling. Vol. 41, pp. 66– 79. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.04.006.
Buti, M. and Corsetti, G. (2024) The first 25 years of the euro: A bird’s-eye view. Available at: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/first-25-years-euro- birds-eye-view (Access 6.05.2026).
Casagrande, S. and Dallago, B. (2022) “The Future of the eurozone: Towards a European Benchmark”, Journal of World Economy: Transformations & Transitions (JOWETT). DOI: 10.52459/jowett13140122.
Cieślik, A. and Teresiński, J. (2020) „Comparing business cycles in the eurozone and in Poland: a Bayesian DSGE approach”, Bank i Kredyt. Vol. 51(4), pp. 317–366. DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0054.5794.
Cieślik, A. and Turgut, M.B. (2021) „Fiscal harmonization given the Euro adoption: economic implications for Poland”, Journal of Policy Modeling. Vol. 43(2), pp. 394–415. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.05.001.
Constâncio, V. (2020) “Fiscal and financial conditions for a stronger euro area”, European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies. Vol. 17(2), pp. 183–193. DOI: 10.4337/ejeep.2020.02.07.
Csajbók, A. and Csermely, Á. (eds.) (2002) Adopting the euro in Hungary: Expected costs, benefits and timing. MNB Occasional Papers, 24. Budapest: National Bank of Hungary (MNB).
Czerniak, A. and Smoleńska, A. (2019) Poland without the euro: a cost benefit analysis. Polityka Insight Report. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/1814/65788 (Access 6.05.2026).
Dandashly, A. (2015) “The political impediments to euro adoption in Poland”, Problems of Post-Communism. Vol. 62(5), pp. 287–298. DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2015.1026202.
De Grauwe, P. (2020) Economics of the monetary union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Dullien, S. (2022) “Ten years on, two crises later: Evaluating EMU institutional reforms since 2010”, International Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 51(1), pp. 5–17. DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2022.2046311.
Dyson, K. (1999) The Road to Maastricht: Negotiating Economic and Monetary Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press. DOI: 10.1093/019829638X.001.0001.
Feldstein, M. (1997) “The political economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political sources of an economic liability”, Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol. 11(4), pp. 23–42. DOI: 10.1257/ jep.11.4.23.
Gabriel, R.D. and Pessoa, A.S. (2024) “Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach”, European Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 83, No. 102537. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102537.
Gabrisch, H. and Kämpfe, M. (2013) “The New EU Countries and Euro Adoption”, Intereconomics. Vol. 48 (3), pp. 180–186. DOI: 10.1007/ s10272-013-0460-0.
Giordano, M. and Lapavitsas, C. (2023) “Persistent institutional malfunctioning in the eurozone”, The Japanese Political Economy, pp. 1–22. DOI: 10.1080/2329194X.2023.2289883.
Gomułka, S. (2019) “Economic and political implications for Poland remaining outside Euro”, Nauka. No. 1.
gov.pl (2024a) Convergence Monitor with the Economic and Monetary Union. The Macroeconomic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance. Available at: https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/monitor-konwergencji-z- ugw (Access 6.05.2026).
gov.pl (2024b) Convergence Report. Assessment of Member States with a derogation regarding their fulfilment of the conditions for euro adoption. Available at: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/ convergence-report-2024_en (Access 6.05.2026).
Götz, M. (2023) Reflections on the challenges of future eurozone expansion on the example of Poland – avoiding the crisis with a common currency? In Mroczek-Dąbrowska, K., Kania, A. and Matysek-Jędrych, A. (eds.) Economic Policy, COVID-19 and Corporations, Perspectives from CEE. Routledge, pp. 30–45.
Gradzewicz, M. and Makarski, K. (2009) “The macroeconomic effects of losing autonomous monetary policy after the euro adoption in Poland”, National Bank of Poland Working Paper. No. 58. DOI: 10.2139/ ssrn.1752227.
Grosse, T.G. (2018) “The future of the euro area–Poland’s geo- economic perspective”, Przegląd Europejski. No. 4, pp. 13–35. DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0013.3406.
Haas, E.B. (2020) Uniting of Europe: Political, Social, and Economic Forces, 1950–1957. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press. DOI: 10.2307/j.ctv19m62zk.
Hofelich T.C. (2022) “De facto differentiation in the EU’s economic and monetary union – A rationalist explanation”, Journal of European Integration. DOI: 10.1080/07036337.2022.2101048.
Jena, J., Fulzele, V., Gupta, R., Sherwani, F., Shankar, R. and Sidharth, S. (2016) “A TISM modeling of critical success factors of smartphone manufacturing ecosystem in India”, Journal of Advances in Management Research. Vol. 13(2), pp. 203–224. DOI: 10.1108/JAMR-12-2015-0088.
Kasperowicz-Stępień, A. (2015) “The fiscal challenges of Polish integration with the euro area”, Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting. Vol. 4(1), pp. 83–96. DOI: 10.12775/CJFA.2015.006.
Kolodko, G.W. and Postula, M. (2018) „Determinants and implications of the eurozone enlargement”, Acta Oeconomica. Vol. 68(4), pp. 477–498. DOI: 10.1556/032.2018.68.4.1.
Kołodziejczyk, K. (2024) “The 2024 Reform of the European Union’s Economic Governance Framework as a Response to Contemporary Challenges”, Studia Europejskie – Studies in European Affairs. Vol. 28(4), pp. 59–76. DOI: 10.33067/SE.4.2024.3.
Kowalski, P., Kowalski, T. and Wihlborg, C. (2007) „Poland: the EMU entry strategy vs. the monetary issues”, Economics and Business Review. Vol. 7(2), pp. 59–88. DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2007.2.540.
Lane, P.R. (2021) “The resilience of the euro”, Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol. 35(2), pp. 3–22. DOI: 10.1257/jep.35.2.3.
Mahood, Q., Van Eerd, D. and Irvin, E. (2014) “Searching for grey literature for systematic reviews: challenges and benefits”, Research Synthesis Methods. Vol. 5(3), pp. 221–234. DOI: 10.1002/jrsm.1106.
Małecki, W. (2009) Globalny kryzys finansowo gospodarczy a przystąpienie Polski do Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej in Małecki, W. (ed.) Globalny kryzys finansowy a polska gospodarka. Warsaw: Vizja Press, pp. 161–184.
Malone, D.W. (1975) “An introduction to the application of interpretive structural modeling”, Proceedings of the IEEE. Vol. 63(3), pp. 397–404. DOI: 10.1109/PROC.1975.9765.
Matysek-Jędrych, A., Mroczek-Dąbrowska, K. and Kania, A. (2024) „Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic: What builds organizational resilience capacity?”, International Journal of Emerging Markets. Vol. 19(10), pp. 3272–3302. DOI: 10.1108/IJOEM-06-2022-0948.
McKinnon, R.I. (1963) “Optimum currency areas”, The American Economic Review. Vol. 53(4), pp. 717–725.
Mundell, R.A. (1961) “A theory of optimum currency areas”, The American Economic Review. Vol. 51(4), pp. 657–665.
North, D.C. (1990) Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511808678.
Riedel, R. and Anusik, J. (2024) Poland: An aspiring new Member State trapped on the EU’s periphery in Varieties of Capitalism and the Political Economy of Differentiated Integration in Europe. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 80–104. DOI: 10.4337/9781035319312.00011.
Rodrik, D. (2015) “The Paradox of Globalization: Economics, Politics, and Democracy”, European Journal of Sociology. Vol. 56(3), pp. 441– 480.
Scharpf, F.W. (2018) There Is an Alternative: A Two-tier European Currency Community. MPIfG Discussion Paper 18/7. Cologne: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
Schimmelfennig, F. and Winzen, T. (2022) “Cascading opt-outs? The effect of the euro and migration crises on differentiated integration in the European Union”, European Union Politics. Vol. 24(1), pp. 21–41. DOI: 10.1177/14651165221121720.
Schoenmaker, D. and Véron, N. (2016) “European banking supervision: The first eighteen months”, Bruegel Policy Contribution. No. 5, pp. 1–11.
Simón, A.G. (2024) “Opening the Black Box of «Convergence» in the European Monetary Union: A Discursive Analysis”, JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies. Vol. 63(4), pp. 1119–1137. DOI: 10.1111/ jcms.13685.
Smoleńska, A. and Tokarski, P. (2023) Euro od/nowa: scenariusze dla Polski. Warszawa: Instytut Reform.
Sorooshian, S., Tavana, M. and Ribeiro-Navarrete, S. (2023) “From classical interpretive structural modeling to total interpretive structural modeling and beyond: A half-century of business research”, Journal of Business Research. Vol. 157, no. 113642. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113642.
Stability and Growth Pact (n.d.) Available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/stability-and-growth-pact.html (Access 6.05.2026).
Sushil (2012) “Interpreting the interpretive structural model”, Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management. Vol. 13(2), pp. 87–106. DOI: 10.1007/s40171-012-0008-3.
Vasiloiu, I.N. (2019) “Expanding the eurozone. The stage of economic convergence for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania”, Theoretical & Applied Economics. No. 4.
Visvizi, A. and Tokarski, P. (2014) “Poland and the Euro: between lock-in and unfinished transition”, Society and Economy. Vol. 36(4), pp. 445–468. DOI: 10.1556/SocEc.36.2014.4.1.
Wasserfallen, F. (2023) The politics of fiscal integration in eurozone reforms and Next Generation EU. Cambridge Handbook on European Monetary, Economic, and Financial Market Integration. DOI: 10.1017/9781009364706.023.
Watson, R.H. (1978) “Interpretive structural modelling – a useful tool for technology assessment?”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 11(2), pp. 165–185. DOI: 10.1016/0040-1625(78)90028-8.
Welfens, P. (2015) “Overcoming the euro crisis and prospects for a political union”, International Economics and Economic Policy. Vol. 13(1), pp. 59–103. DOI: 10.1007/s10368-015-0322-2.
Whetten, D.A. (1990) “What constitutes a theoretical contribution?”, Academy of Management Review. Vol. 14(4), pp. 490–495. DOI: 10.2307/258554.
Language: English
Pages: 299-328
How to Cite:
Harvard
Götz, M. (2026) "Determinants of Euro Adoption in Poland – Relevance and Relationships in Light of the TISM Approach". Studia Europejskie – Studies in European Affairs, 2/2026, pp. 299-328. DOI: 10.33067/SE.2.2026.15